How cream.run works

Every vault on this site watches a small group of the most profitable traders onchain and copies their collective opinion on one market, across crypto, stocks and indexes: going long when they lean long, short when they lean short, and sitting in cash when they can't agree.

1 · The big picture

Some traders are verifiably, consistently good. They've made millions over years, in public, onchain, where anyone can check. cream.run tracks a curated group of them. Every 30 minutes we take a snapshot of what each one is holding, combine those positions into a single verdict per market, and each vault mirrors that verdict.

No prediction models, no black box. The only "signal" is what proven traders are actually doing with their own money, right now.

2 · The voting room

Picture each market as a room. Every tracked trader with a position in that market walks in and votes: long (price goes up) or short (price goes down). The vault holds whatever the room decides, but not every voice is equally loud. Three things set a trader's volume:

Track record

The main thing. Each trader has a skill score built from their measured returns, and it counts disproportionately: someone twice as skilled speaks four times as loud. Mediocre traders fade into background noise.

Their credential

The room has two tiers. Traders with over $1M of lifetime profit speak at full volume; those between $100K and $1M speak at quarter volume. Below that, the evidence of skill is too thin to earn a say.

Skin in the game

A trader betting their whole account believes it more than one dabbling with 5%, so bet size raises their voice, but only gently. A maxed-out bet makes you less than twice as loud. Skill first, bet size second: one reckless whale can never out-shout ten skilled traders.

3 · From vote to position

The room's verdict is a number between −100% and +100%: how lopsided the vote was. The vault simply holds that fraction of its money in the market and keeps the rest in cash. A verdict of "40% short" means 40% of the vault is short and 60% sits safely in dollars.

Positions are always taken at 1×, with no leverage. The position is never bigger than the money behind it, so a bad day is a bruise, not a wipeout, and liquidation is remote by construction.

The vault also never copies individual trades. It reacts to positions: a trader's trade only matters if it changed what they're holding by the next 30-minute snapshot.

4 · Two honesty rules

Count voices, not heads

Seventeen traders in a room sounds like consensus, but if one of them holds 92% of the speaking weight, it's really one man's opinion with sixteen spectators. Before acting, the vault measures the effective number of voices, and if fewer than 3 real voices agree, it sits in cash. That's the "effective voices" number on every vault page.

No trading on a wobble

The vault only enters a position when the verdict is decisive (past ±12%) and only exits back to cash when it clearly fades (inside ±8%). A verdict wobbling around zero produces no churn and no unnecessary trading costs.

5 · Reading the site

The front page is one table, one row per vault:

Days: how long this vault's live track record has been running.
Call: the room's current verdict: LONG, SHORT, or FLAT (in cash).
Allocation: how much of the vault is deployed in the position; the rest is cash.
Pros: how many tracked traders currently hold a position in this market.
Vs Hold: the vault's return compared to simply buying and holding the asset over the same period. Positive = the vault did better.

Each vault page adds four views:

Price chart: the asset's real market price (from Lighter, the exchange these vaults will trade on), with the vault's position drawn over it: green above the midline when long, red below when short, flat at its latest value.
Positioning over time: the raw verdict history: how the room's lean has moved, tick by tick, since day one.
Vault vs. holding: two lines starting from the same point: the vault's value and a simple buy-and-hold. The gap (Diff) is what following the smart money added or cost, over 1 day, 7 days, or all time.
Who's driving it: the actual traders behind the current call: their direction, how much of their own book they've committed, and their skill score.

6 · What "paper" means (read this)

Everything on this site today is a live preview with imaginary money. The signal is real, computed from real traders' real positions, recorded every 30 minutes and never rewritten, but no funds are deployed yet, and the performance lines are frictionless: they ignore trading fees and funding costs, which would make real results somewhat worse.

We show it this way on purpose: an honest, growing, out-of-sample track record you can watch form in real time, not a backtest tuned to look good. When the numbers are shown, they are what the signal actually did, including when it loses to simply holding the asset.

Next: deposits. Real vaults will trade these same signals with real money on Lighter, a zero-fee exchange. Until then, the Deposit button stays disabled; nothing here asks for or accepts funds.